Bought 118 SSO @ 21.24.
Why this will go up: The S&P has two decent support levels to bounce from: one is the upward trend, the other is the level around 820-833. With two levels of support in a rally, this ought to be a good bet.
What will show that you're wrong: To see a significant drop from either of these two resistance points.
Again, here's my drawing, showing what I mean:
Update 3/27: Still holding onto the stock w/ S&P at 816. Today's action has been down and choppy, but on pretty soft volume. We're almost on the threshold of a recent trend line. Check it out:
UPDATE 3/30: Sold @ 19.4. Yes, I was buying at low volume on the bottom of a channel, but it was an intermediate reaction in a longer-term downward channel, which had topped out at precisely the same time. The longer-term trend rules at this point. I realized this mistake earlier in the weekend and changed my stance from bullish to neutral. Now we've broken some serious support, and I'm back with the bear, even for short term. Check out what I'm talking about in this picture:
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