Bought 90 SH @ 78.63:
Your assumptions: This is the next intermediate leg down in the bear market. I could keep this until a)the bear market signals a shift in trend to Bull, using the dow theory, or b)until it reaches the bottom of the channel again, at which point I could take a small long position.
Time Range: The down-leg will probably last for about 3 weeks, about how long each prior downleg in this channel has taken. The recent intermediate reaction took 22 calendar days. I'm looking at the same time-frame.
What invalidates your assumptions? Breaking back into the last up-channel would signal another trend-change. There is high possibility of sideways action, fake-outs. We've seen one lower high, and have now broken the downside too. To shift this trend, we'd need both a higher high and lower low.
Target Price: $85+
Stop? I expect some volatility and upswings. As long as my assumptions are still valid, i'm not going to put in a stop. S&P 820 is currently where I'd clearly be wrong.
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