Hammy Trade - SSO

Bought 118 SSO @ 21.24.

Why this will go up: The S&P has two decent support levels to bounce from: one is the upward trend, the other is the level around 820-833. With two levels of support in a rally, this ought to be a good bet.

What will show that you're wrong: To see a significant drop from either of these two resistance points.

Again, here's my drawing, showing what I mean:

Update 3/27: Still holding onto the stock w/ S&P at 816. Today's action has been down and choppy, but on pretty soft volume. We're almost on the threshold of a recent trend line. Check it out:

UPDATE 3/30: Sold @ 19.4. Yes, I was buying at low volume on the bottom of a channel, but it was an intermediate reaction in a longer-term downward channel, which had topped out at precisely the same time. The longer-term trend rules at this point. I realized this mistake earlier in the weekend and changed my stance from bullish to neutral. Now we've broken some serious support, and I'm back with the bear, even for short term. Check out what I'm talking about in this picture:

Hammy Trade: Sell SDS, Buy SSO, Buy SDS

sold 31 SDS @ 77.98. bought 131 SSO @ 20.71. I just bought 37 SDS @ 74.84 to hedge my long position, since I don't think i have the settled funds to sell SSO for the $55 profit. I'm essentially even now. This was a big rally up to a resistance position (825) with smaller than normal volume. Not interested in being long, nor short. 

My resistance trade failed. The S&P pushed through 805, triggering me from bearish to bullish. 

I learned something significant: If you're trading counter-trend, you need to keep it small or non-existent. Right now we're in the middle of a huge rally. Yes, it's on smaller volume than average, yes, it's not for any good reason, but the market IS and HAS BEEN moving higher. Thus, shorting is counter-trend trading. If you're going to bet against the market, you better a)have a great piece of information and assurance that you're right, or B) make your position very small.

I got long after 805 and made back some of the money. So today wasn't a total wash. I also came out of today with a very valuable lesson. 

LESSON LEARNED: IF YOU'RE COUNTER-TREND TRADING, KEEP YOUR POSITION SMALL! Better option is: in rallies, wait until it crashes up through ceiling resistance, then get long. This is instead of speculating that it will bounce down from the ceiling. Use the momentum of the market and stay on the safe side. There is a much smaller chance of being wrong if you wait for it to confirm it's own trend and then ride it up, or down (if in a bear market). 

or:

Don't try to short during rallies. Don't try to get long during bears. Trade with the trend. 

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UPDATE 3/25: 

Traded out of my "even" position with SDS and SSO. I bought the SSO close to the end of the "epic" rally around 810, and bought SDS yesterday to "cover" that SSO position.

Since these are leveraged ETFs, an "even" position between the two still loses money. So i got out of both of them today.

Hammy Trade - SDS, SSO

Traded out of my "even" position with SDS and SSO. I bought the SSO close to the end of the "epic" rally around 810, and bought SDS yesterday to "cover" that SSO position.

Since these are leveraged ETFs, an "even" position between the two still loses money. So i got out of both of them today.