Market Outlook and Today's Action

Stopped out of SIGM today w/ a 3 percent trailing stop, and held onto OPXS for a little bit of a loss. The market went lower, and possibly broke down through its most recent up-trend. Once it breaks down through a key level at 885, we'll have confirmation of a better chance of a downturn:

SIGM stopped out, and then jumped back up. It's down 2.5% in after hours:

OXPS is about to get killed. It has not confirmed itself as a good breakout. I'm up, and don't have much more tolerance for downside (especially in this market right now):

In summary, the Market looks like its about to fall over. These stocks probably won't do well if that happens. I'm just holding one small, profitable position, and will probably be getting out of it soon. No need to trade until the market shows its true colors.

Considering Buys

unbelievable picks by Chart Addict and Ragin' Cajun

CPE triangle Breakout:

i put in a limit order to buy on a pullback @ 1.98. Might have executed by now. Decent triangle formation after a run-up. Also, jumped up off 20 day MA

JASO channel breakout:

NXG Gold play. Nice consolidation and breakout of triangle:

Update: put in limit orders for JASO and CPE on pullbacks after the start run-up. CPE @ 2.00, JASO at 3.71.

Update: bought 1000 NXG at 152

Contrary to Fly's Recommendations

putting my feeble opinions in contrary to The Fly, I expect to be summarily bereft.

Charts on the Fly's recommendations via Fly's article:

All commentary beyond here is my own.

YGE: Due for correction. Hasn't shown reversal yet.

CSIQ: 6 months down, 4 flat. Now @ top of channel, will bounce down

I'd wait until it makes another reactive correction.

Here's ANH. This wedge actually goes back to mid 2007:

GLG has become flat, but hasn't shown evidence of reversal:

TIBX is in a 4 year downtrend, thought you can't see it here:

CY is going down:

TLAB: down due to channel, though it's been showing a new uptrend. A breakout would be very significant.

What do you think?

Trade Prediction - RNT

Technical Analysis - YGE

Bullish on YGE, the # 2 ranked PPT stock. Check out the charts for why. This is a potentially great buy if the S&P breaks out on Monday.

Long Term:

Shorter Term:

Game Plan 3/30 - On Second Thought...

Check out the longer term S&P trend here:

I made a bullish call when looking at the short trend term trend in consideration of this chart, from this post.

Look at the bigger picture. Longer term, we are still in a downtrend. My trading system (which I'm still developing) would state:

• On a short term to stay bullish since we're hitting resistance on the bottom of a recent channel, and we've had no evidence of losing that trend. There was some selling on friday, but on very light volume. Bet with the trend, get long.
• On a longer term, get short pretty soon. We're at the top of a long term channel, as well as sitting at some strong resistance. There's going to be a good amount of congestion to any upside, anyways.
• The Textbook even states that there is no "mechanical” index or combination of indexes which will always, automatically, without ever failing or going wrong, give warning of a change in trend; "such, in our experience, are often confusing and sometimes downright deceptive at a most critical juncture."" pg 9

I expect the market to break down from this top channel, as the stronger, over-riding trend. Fundamentals haven't changed (or at least, haven't changed for the better). Yet, we've just seen one hell of a rally.

I'm changing my outlook to monday to NEUTRAL. I will get rid of my long position and see what happens. If we bounce down again, I'll reconsider each time frame and make my decision from there.

Hammy Trade Plan - SPY

Put a stop buy order for 37 SPY @ 82.73. This will be above the resistance @ 826.84. The S&P has already hit 826.78 and then bounced down 3. If it breaks this resistance, it's time to get long (Like it was this morning @ 806.. but I was sleeping in this morning!)

Market Prediction

Update: CORRECT! The market was hitting a trend line, resistence, on low volume. Now it's bounced of in high! Check it out:

 

[caption id="attachment_328" align="alignnone" width="500" caption="Check out the two lines on the left: prediction first, then today."][/caption]

 

 

The S&P is down on low volume, at a key support level (805). If I were going to make a trade, I'd buy 31 shares of SPY at 806 for 2500. 

Stop: 800

Sell: 820.