Got in ABAT on 6/10 at 4.10. Current chart (6/15): Pattern not yet broke out, or down. Hold.
Update 6/16: Still consolidating. Breakout box listed. Will either break out, or be sold soon.
Got in CEP on 6/11 at 4.24. Current Chart (6/15 close): Viable triangle breakout. Still holding. Price target around 5.00
Update 6/16: Still healthy, looking fine. Large price range ahead though. Not sure I like holding onto these, when the market is stalling out.
Triangle breakout-- plain and simple. Also not a bad fundamental play. Talked about a lot on Fly's blog:
Bought at 15.65
Stories:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/143167-natural-gas-the-next-big-thing
UPDATE 6/15/09: Still holding:
Update 6/16: holding, good technicals and good fundies.
Bought @ 10.28. Month long triangle pattern break-out from 100 and 50 DMA. Could have caught this one lower, the actual breakout was at about 9.77, so this was about 5% above the breakout point.
No pictures today since my Mac died.
The only thing I need to be careful with, when buying later stage break-outs, is that they can correct down past my buy point while still holding their breakout pattern. Getting it earliest, and lowest, is key to staying sane while holding a breakout.
UPDATE 6/10: Sold at 13.49.
Bought @ 7.24
Update 6/4/09: I put a stop at 7.16, because I was leaving the desk. It stopped out. This was a stupid trade to begin with, since it never actually broke out. I will keep it on my radar, however, because it might be a good trade (tomorrow perhaps).
Bought APL @ 6.11 on 6/3/09:
BOX 6/4/09
update 6/4/09: sold at 7.50 for a 22% gain. This got outside the box, hit the target, and did its job well.
In at 48.1995
Update: This just didn't seem like it was going to do anything. I had little conviction for holding it, and let it go at 49.06
bought at 1.32. I'm in a bit late, and will be getting out later today.
Triangle Breakout:
UPDATE: 6/4/09 Sold at 1.44. There was support at 1.43, but thick selling in this area. Got out with around 9 percent.
SIGM showed its volume in a run-up by the end of the day. It showed a solid triangle break-out formation, with volume confirmation.
UPDATE 5/21: Got in at 14.54, out at 15.56.
Why I sold: the market is getting a little dicey. I wasn't going to be watching the screen for a while, and decided to put a 3% stop on the stock as an insurance policy. later today i might get back, check it out, and reevaluate.
Some Triangles, and some bull flags. My goal this week is to make one disciplined, well thought out trade.
These are some prospects:
FLAGS:
"Usually forms after a rapid and fairly extensive advance which produces a nearly verticle, or at least quite steep price track on the charts. On such moves, volume normally shows a progressive increase until it reaches a high rate. Eventually profit-taking halts the markup. Then follows a series of minor fluctuations, sloping down somewhat, with volume shrinking markedly. and constantly as the pattern develops. The pattern might go on for five days, or three weeks. The explosion in price then practically duplicates the original price movement of the "mast" formation."
Wait until the example is clear - a nearly vertical, almost unbelievable rise, followed by several days of congestion with practically no volume.
Triangles:
Need to research this position a little more.
I put down an arbitrary stop before leaving the house, and behold- it stopped out at a low open then jumped back up.
I would like to get back into this stock, as it's set to run up, but I'm tired of chasing stocks right now. It feels like I'm chasing my own tail.
No.. some money is going to sit on the sidelines for now. I'm going to cool the jets for the time being.
Update: FSIN about a week later:
The lesson learned on triangle breakouts is to allow them to move back down to their previous uptrend. Don't get jerked around by volatility. If need be, scale back a little bit.
ELN: in at 7.31
Insert pictures here.
Sloppy chart work driven by impatience. This is pretty disappointing.
Update: OUT at 6.67. The stock got stopped out, but the pattern is broken, anyway:
If the market bursts up again after some consolidation, this might just break out:
Bought 475 CPE at 2.00.
The limit order was for 750, but it only executed for 475. The rest might come in, or it might not. Here's the chart:
It made about a 60% price move from the base of the last consolidation to the base of this triangle. I see price action going up another 60 percent to about 3.20. Significant supply at 2.40 and 3.50
My assumptions are that CPE just broke out of a bullish triangle/flag continuation pattern and will repeat its prior price movement. This assumption will be proven wrong if it breaks down below the ascending triangle line, currently at about 1.78
UPDATE: Sold at 2.46. Here's the chart and reasoning why:
To measure price implications of triangles, from the text book:
“Draw from the Top of the first rally that initiated the pattern (in other words, from its upper left-hand corner) a line parallel to the Bottom boundary. This line will slope up away from the pattern to the right.Prices may be expected to climb until they reach this line. Also, as a rule, they will climb, following their breakout from the pattern, at about the same angle or rate as characterized their trend prior to their entering the pattern. “
Bought 1000 NXG at 1.52:
This is a decent ascending triangle break-out and a commodity play.
My assumption is that NXG just broke out of a bullish ascending triangle. It made about a 90% up move prior to forming the continuation pattern. I expect it to repeat the move, with a price target of around 3.03. Areas of resistance will be around 1.65, 1.81, and 2.85.
My assumptions will be proven wrong if the stock breaks down below the ascending trend line. Currently this is at about 1.41.
UPDATE 5/7/09:
Chart Addict just sold his NXG, claiming exhaustion. I think he's wrong, at least according to my price-target metrics. I'll hold until it breaks down.
UPDATE 5/12/09:
NXG is still looking pretty good to me!
