6/16: Bought SDS at 55.37 to hedge against my longs. Last night i remember wishing I had bought some during the day, and was pissed I hadn't when SPX futures were so low.
The SPX is indecisive, and I don't feel like getting "dropped down an empty elevator shaft" as Fly would put it.
Down day today. I'm down about a buck fifty. Here are my positions and their trading ranges:
ABAT:
GLW:
XTXI:
ACAS:
CEP:
Bought @ 10.28. Month long triangle pattern break-out from 100 and 50 DMA. Could have caught this one lower, the actual breakout was at about 9.77, so this was about 5% above the breakout point.
No pictures today since my Mac died.
The only thing I need to be careful with, when buying later stage break-outs, is that they can correct down past my buy point while still holding their breakout pattern. Getting it earliest, and lowest, is key to staying sane while holding a breakout.
UPDATE 6/10: Sold at 13.49.
Bot @ 15.63
This is more of a fundamental play. GLW has stellar fundamentals and prospects for business with small LCD screens.
Here's a chart, which looks like it could break out of a cup with handle. This wasn't a patiently timed out trade, so I may see some volatility before a breakout.
And here's my box of future movement. As long as the price remains in the box, I hold. If it breaks out, I'll buy more. If it breaks down, I'll sell for about a 12% loss:
Update 6/15/09: STill in the box, still holding. FLY just bought more:
Update 6/16: Still in the box:
Bought @ 7.24
Update 6/4/09: I put a stop at 7.16, because I was leaving the desk. It stopped out. This was a stupid trade to begin with, since it never actually broke out. I will keep it on my radar, however, because it might be a good trade (tomorrow perhaps).
Bought APL @ 6.11 on 6/3/09:
BOX 6/4/09
update 6/4/09: sold at 7.50 for a 22% gain. This got outside the box, hit the target, and did its job well.
In at 48.1995
Update: This just didn't seem like it was going to do anything. I had little conviction for holding it, and let it go at 49.06
in at 2.55
Update 6/3/09:
Out at 2.29. This was about 10% down. It didn't break formation, but this is more than I wish to wait for.. for now. I'll get back into this if it shows an actual breakout.
In at 3.85.
Bull flag breakout. Nice pattern, though it got a little close to the apex for my tastes.
Update 6/4/09: Decent pattern so far, not perfect,but not failed.
UPDATE 6/15: Still holding:
Update 6/16: Not sure if I wanna keep holding these breakouts when the market is stalling. Still holding until SPX breaks down:
bought at 1.32. I'm in a bit late, and will be getting out later today.
Triangle Breakout:
UPDATE: 6/4/09 Sold at 1.44. There was support at 1.43, but thick selling in this area. Got out with around 9 percent.
Awesome bull flag setup. 3% above buy point, confirming strength with price and volume:
"Mets - Look at RC's PPT blog post with a target. Also, refer to the rule of thumb about flag patterns: "the explosion in price then practically duplicates the original price movement of the “mast” formation." RC puts a target around 6.75, and the rule of thumb would duplicate the move from 3.86 to 5.19, a $1.33 move, to a breakout target of 6.58 "
Here's why i'm going to sell THQI at 6.45:
UPDATE 5/19: SOLD at 6.16. I think this has some room to run, but I don't have a real idea of what to expect for the overall market. I got cold feet and decided to walk away with 8.5%
SIGM showed its volume in a run-up by the end of the day. It showed a solid triangle break-out formation, with volume confirmation.
UPDATE 5/21: Got in at 14.54, out at 15.56.
Why I sold: the market is getting a little dicey. I wasn't going to be watching the screen for a while, and decided to put a 3% stop on the stock as an insurance policy. later today i might get back, check it out, and reevaluate.
Bought PLLL at 2.21. It's currently at 2.08, down 6%:
It's not a horrible pattern, but also just not a great one. It's just about failed, and I'll probably sell soon for a 8% loss.
Update: Out at 2.05 due to stopping out.
Update 5/18:
I don't really think this was ever a "triangle pattern." Also, notice the price action around the 100 DMA
ELN: in at 7.31
Insert pictures here.
Sloppy chart work driven by impatience. This is pretty disappointing.
Update: OUT at 6.67. The stock got stopped out, but the pattern is broken, anyway:
NFP had a nice triangle, breakout, and bull flag. Trying to anticipate the break-out, I chomped on the bait:
Dumbass moves:
1) Didn't wait for an actual breakout.
2) Didn't put in a stop.
Now, had I actually done a little bit of journalling and planning with this stock, I might have realized that I should have put a safety net in place. My impatience and greed got the best of me, and I'm out big time on this stock. I got in @ 9.13, and out at 6.95 for about -35%.
This is another penny-stock breakout, pointed out by Chart Addict.
Again, I would classify this as a "price breakout", one that busts up through prior highs after some consolidation. This also might be considered a bull flag, based on the recent run-up. I expect it to repeat the last move.
I will sell for a loss at 3% below the breakout point (breakout-1.56, -3% - 1.513)
I will sell for a gain at 1.70. I would like to be out, regardless, at the end of the day.
UPDATE: sold at 1.54 at the end of day. This is classified as a "dumbass" trade.
Bought SPRD at 1.919...
This is a little bit extended from the breakout point around 1.80, but still not a bad intra-day trade. This is a pure breakout play on a penny stock, and I don't intend to hold it too long:
My assumption is that we're seeing another typical penny stock breakout. This will be proven wrong if the stock goes down below the break-out price.
I will sell for a loss at that point. I will sell for profit at a 7% gain.
UPDATE:
Sold at 1.93 at end of day. This was a pretty stupid trade, now that I think about it.
bought at 58.09 on 5/7/09
This is dangerous, I know. However, it's a small position and I'm using it as a slight hedge for the time being. I'm just really not sure what's happening in the market right now, but believe we'll see a little bit of a correction:
This is a leveraged Moving Average buy. The index moved down through the 20 and 50 (10 minute) moving averages. I'm holding this as a hedge in case the market makes a major move down, and my other two positions break down. I haven't made money on this type of trade in the past, and I don't think I'm doing much differently, so it's probably a stupid trade. I'll get back to this later.
Update: sold at 59.37 on 5/7/09
Why I sold: It hit the day high. SPY hit a low. I didn't want to hold SDS for more than intraday, and I had no conviction that we'd see move either way. Since I held a profit, I decided to get out. Minor success (1.85%) on a small move, but not bad for an intraday play.
Bought 475 CPE at 2.00.
The limit order was for 750, but it only executed for 475. The rest might come in, or it might not. Here's the chart:
It made about a 60% price move from the base of the last consolidation to the base of this triangle. I see price action going up another 60 percent to about 3.20. Significant supply at 2.40 and 3.50
My assumptions are that CPE just broke out of a bullish triangle/flag continuation pattern and will repeat its prior price movement. This assumption will be proven wrong if it breaks down below the ascending triangle line, currently at about 1.78
UPDATE: Sold at 2.46. Here's the chart and reasoning why:
To measure price implications of triangles, from the text book:
“Draw from the Top of the first rally that initiated the pattern (in other words, from its upper left-hand corner) a line parallel to the Bottom boundary. This line will slope up away from the pattern to the right.Prices may be expected to climb until they reach this line. Also, as a rule, they will climb, following their breakout from the pattern, at about the same angle or rate as characterized their trend prior to their entering the pattern. “
